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    Merger Model

    A merger model combines buyer + target financials to answer 'does this deal make the acquirer's EPS go up (accretive) or down (dilutive)?'

    Definition

    A merger model (also called an accretion/dilution model) is a financial model that combines the income statements of an acquirer and target to determine the pro forma impact on the acquirer's earnings per share (EPS). It answers the fundamental question: does this deal increase or decrease the acquirer's EPS?

    M

    Building a Merger Model

    Five steps from standalone projections to accretion/dilution

    E

    Accretion / Dilution Analysis

    The most important output of a merger model

    Acquirer Standalone EPS$3.00
    Pro Forma EPSAccretive +8.3%
    $3.25

    +$0.25

    Accretive by +8.3%

    Key Drivers

    Target Net Income

    +$200M

    Cost Synergies (after tax)

    +$75M

    New Interest Expense

    -$80M

    New Shares Issued

    50M shares

    The deal is accretive because the target's earnings contribution plus synergies ($150M) exceed the financing cost (new interest expense of $80M and dilution from 50M new shares).

    D

    Deal Structure

    How the acquisition is funded changes everything

    100% Cash

    Example

    Acquirer pays $5.2B in cash (funded by $2B cash on hand + $3.2B new debt)

    +Advantages

    Clean — no dilution to existing shareholders

    Signals confidence in the deal value

    Target shareholders get immediate, certain value

    Tax-efficient for acquirer (interest is tax-deductible)

    -Disadvantages

    Increases leverage and financial risk

    Depletes cash reserves

    Higher near-term dilution to EPS (interest expense)

    Target shareholders bear no integration risk

    Key Steps in Building a Merger Model

    Step 1: Project standalone financials for both acquirer and target. Step 2: Determine deal terms — offer price, consideration mix (cash vs. stock), and financing laid out in the sources & uses table. Step 3: Calculate purchase price allocation adjustments (goodwill, intangibles write-up, deferred tax effects). Step 4: Combine income statements and apply synergies, new interest expense, and share issuance. Step 5: Calculate pro forma EPS and compare to acquirer's standalone EPS.

    Accretion vs. Dilution Drivers

    A deal is accretive when pro forma EPS > acquirer standalone EPS. Key drivers: the target's P/E relative to the acquirer's P/E (buying a lower-P/E target with stock is accretive), the cost of financing (debt is cheap, so cash/debt deals are often accretive), synergies (cost savings boost combined earnings), and the purchase premium (higher premium = more dilutive). Accretion/dilution is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a good deal.

    Synergies and Purchase Accounting

    Synergies — typically cost synergies (headcount, facilities, systems) — are added to the combined income statement. Revenue synergies are rarer and harder to justify. Purchase accounting creates goodwill (excess of purchase price over fair value of net assets) and may write up intangible assets (customer relationships, technology), creating new amortization expense that reduces pro forma earnings.

    Worked Example — With Real Numbers

    Acquirer has EPS of $2.00 on 500M shares. Target has net income of $200M and is acquired for $4B [enterprise value](https://www.ibflash.com/concepts/enterprise-value) (20x P/E). If 100% stock deal at acquirer price of $50/share: new shares issued = 80M. Pro forma net income = $1B + $200M + $50M synergies - $20M new amortization = $1.23B. Pro forma EPS = $1.23B / 580M = $2.12. Since $2.12 > $2.00, the deal is 6% accretive.

    Key Takeaways

    1

    The merger model answers whether a deal is accretive or dilutive to the acquirer's EPS

    2

    Buying a lower-P/E target with stock tends to be accretive; higher-P/E tends to be dilutive

    3

    Cash/debt deals are often more accretive because the after-tax cost of debt is low

    4

    Synergies improve accretion, while purchase accounting amortization reduces it

    5

    Accretion/dilution alone does not determine if a deal is a good strategic decision

    Common Mistakes in Interviews

    Assuming accretive = good deal — a deal can be accretive but destroy value if overpaid

    Forgetting to include purchase accounting adjustments (new D&A from intangible write-ups)

    Not accounting for foregone interest on cash used for the acquisition

    Ignoring transaction and financing fees

    How Interviewers Test This

    The classic question is 'Company A (20x P/E) acquires Company B (10x P/E) in an all-stock deal — accretive or dilutive?' Answer: accretive, because you're buying cheaper earnings. Know how to do a quick back-of-envelope accretion/dilution calculation.

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